Рига спасет cело в каждом провинциальном городке

08.11.1997 05:20



Каждый латыш в глубине души - романтик и поэт. Это приходится констатировать всякий раз, когда в ответ на просьбу раскрыть суть проблемы он начинает с описания сил природы, добра и зла, обычаев предков и болезней тетки по матери. Математические формулы в такой аудитории звучат неубедительно, поэтому начнем образно, с выяснения:

1) сколь широка земля наша родная;

2) что означает быть пахарем для народа и 3) будет ли Рига когда-нибудь готова.

Если бы епископ Алберт не забил здесь, в нижнем течении Даугавы, сваи, если бы были сведены все леса и засыпаны реки и озера, на каждого из 2,5 миллиона жителей Латвии пришлось бы по 2,58 гектара пригодной к сельскохозяйственному использованию земли, или же по 10,33 гектара на среднестатистическую семью из четырех человек.

На месте гидры, называемой Ригой, тогда было бы 30 700 гектаров золотой пашни (наверное, следовало бы пересчитать в пурные места, но автор старается везде придерживаться метрической системы мер), которые обрабатывали бы 11 800 земляков и землячек. Внимательный читатель заметит, что такое количество людей могли бы обеспечить себе пропитание только в том случае, если бы была засыпана Даугава и засеяна совершенно не плодоносная площадь вокруг памятника Свободы.

Студент-первокурсник экономического факультета заметит, что здесь описывается предельная величина: площадь земли на одного жителя в стране, которая получает доходы телько от сельского хозяйства, то есть пока не начала заниматься транзитом нефти, телекоммуникациями, банковским бизнесом или какими-то прочими спекуляциями, но твердо придерживается своего традиционного образа жизни.

В таком патриархально-идиллическом мире было бы разрешено извечное противоречие между городом и селом, и была бы выбита почва из-под ног тех политиков, число очков популярности которых прямо пропорционально сумме субсидий сельскому хозяйству из госбюджета.

Ибо единственным источником выплаты субсидий сельскому хозяйству было бы само сельское хозяйство.

Далее попытаемся выяснить, насколько велики были бы доходы нашего сознательного среднестатистического пахаря в нынешних ценах.

Средними данными мы не располагаем, поэтому пользоваться причесанными, а именно - обследованными Службой сельскохозяйственных консультаций бухгалтерскими данными хозяйств о доходах и расходах. В отличие от среднестатистических данных эти люди выращивают и более высокие урожаи на 1 га используемой для сельского хозяйства земли.

Желая своему ближнему только добра, забудем о налогах, возьмем самое большое число и получим, что за один год прибыль на одного жителя составила бы 176,80 лата (или 707,20 лата на латышскую семью), или 14,73 лата на душу в месяц (см. таблицу).

Человек, желающий заработать больше, обычно заглядывает в кошелек соседа не из зависти, а из чисто экономического интереса.

Самый большой конкурс в этой стране - на места депутатов Саэйма; допустим, что они среднестатистически зарабатывают 400 латов в месяц, хотя это вдвое меньше, чем зарабатывает сборщик яблок в Новой Зеландии, что в его семье - два депутата (а такие примеры у нас есть), а вторые двое не зарабатывают ничего, и подсчитаем, каким будет общее число хозяйств традиционного сельскохозяйственного производства, если мы хотим, чтобы их доходы были достойными человека.

Если бы мы продолжали придерживаться принципа, что следует уничтожить все несельскохозяйственные нечистоты, то могли бы обеспечить достойные депутатов доходы 46 052 семьям из четырех человек. Если Латвия выглядела бы такой, какая она есть, и площадь используемой для сельского хозяйства земли была бы такой, какая она в действительности, получим число - 7130.

Каждый студент-экономист, вероятно, назвал бы это пределом, к которому стремится число хозяйств традиционного сельскохозяйственного производства, а число 140,25 га - пределом, к которому стремится размер хозяйств традиционного сельскохозяйственного производства. Так, к примеру, случилось с клиентами Лауккредита, средний размер хозяйств которых в 1994 году был 20 га, а весной 1997 года - 110 га.

Чтобы выяснить, почему в древней Латвии объявился Ансис, бросивший на краю поля соху и принявшийся мастерить дудки и постолы, почему Йоске занялся торговлей и почему Бауманис строил дома, и чтобы убедиться в том, что они делали это не из-за того, что в их генах присутствовала некая нечестивость, заставившая их отвернуться от честного и единственно правильного занятия, попробуем представить, что было бы, если бы Рига была уже готова.

Если бы Рига была построена в пределах ныне существующей Латвии (без Абренского округа), то каждому ее жителю (при сохранении нынешней плотности населения Риги) принадлежало бы 0,037144 га земли (или 0,1485 га на семью), и во всей Латвии нашлось бы место для 173,8 миллиона жителей.

Можно ли выжить в условиях, когда на каждую семью приходится всего 0,1485 га земли? Здесь надо бы снова найти какой-нибудь предельный случай. Например, некий мой знакомый Ш. построил офисное здание на принадлежащих ему 0,0701 гектара земли, и нетто прибыль на 1 гектар этой не используемой для сельского хозяйства земли составляет 857 143 лата в год.

Было бы корректно добавить, что предел доходов, который существовал на единицу земельной площади в аграрном обществе и был несколько выше в индустриальном (промышленном) обществе, исчез, когда мир превратился в общество информации и услуг. Теоретически можно заработать миллиарды, стоя на одной ноге (вообще не занимая земельной площади) и торгуя с помощью мобильного телефона на бирже валютой и ценными бумагами.

Может быть, зная об этом, зарубежные инвесторы 60,4% инвестиций в Латвии вложили в область коммуникаций и услуг, 23,8% - в промышленность и совсем чуть-чуть - в сельское хозяйство, ибо они хотят обеспечить себе достойные человека доходы.

Вы скажете, что все это слишком далеко от реальности.

Взглянем на последнюю выковыренную из британской короны жемчужину - Гонконг. Его руководители не знали, что наипервейшая обязанность государства - обеспечить своих жителей продовольствием местного производства, поэтому удельный вес сельского хозяйства в его национальном валовом продукте за период с 1970 по 1992 год снизился с 2% до круглого нуля, но тем не менее общая сумма НВП за эти 22 года выросла с 3,46 миллиарда до 77,82 миллиарда долларов США, благодаря тому, что удельный вес сектора услуг увеличился с 62 до 77 процентов (удельный вес промышленности тоже продолжал уменьшаться с 36 до 23 процентов). Площадь земли на одного жителя этого насчитывающего 6 миллионов жителей государства более чем вдвое меньше, чем в Риге - 0,01724 га, а национальный доход - в пять раз выше.

Имеются две главные причины, почему нам не следовало бы так сильно напрягаться. Если у тебя дела идут чересчур хорошо, то сосед, который больше и сильнее, может тебя завоевать. У нас и земли достаточно, и очень уж резкого демографического взрыва (благодаря низкому уровню доходов) не ожидается, чтобы не пришлось жить в небоскребах.

Единственное, что нам надо было бы сделать - обеспечить людям достойные доходы, помня, что площадь земли ограничена.

Перелистав бумаги Службы сельскохозяйственных консультаций и Государственной службы леса, мы смогли констатировать, что брутто прибыль (я должен отказаться от критерия нетто прибыли, так как фиксированные затраты могут быть весьма различными, и у меня недостаточно примеров, чтобы рассчитать средний размер нетто прибыли) на гектар при выращивании традиционных пород деревьев, по меньшей мере так же высока, как в лучших растениеводческих хозяйствах. Что касается ягод, мы могли заметить, что (брутто прибыль от выращивания зерна/сахарной свеклы составляет 180,27 Ls в год на 1 га) брутто прибыль составляет 7000-10 000 латов в год на гектар используемой для сельского хозяйства земли (см. таблицу).

Каждый, имеющий под рукой калькулятор, может подсчитать, какие площади нужны сельской семье, чтобы обеспечить себе нормальные доходы.

Во всех своих предыдущих допущениях мы принимали за истину, что продукция сельского хозяйства имеет неограниченный сбыт. Тем не менее это не так. Наверное, я буду не первым, кто напомнит, как тяжело в долгожданном Европейском союзе будет конкурировать с французскими хлеборобами или британскими производителями молока. Между тем американцы мне обещали, что были бы счастливы, если бы в дополнение к имеющимся в Латвии было бы еще 3000 га яблоневых садов, 800 га черной смородины, 400 га клубники, 500 га малины, 500 га аронии и 400 га клюквы. А британцы, как и прежде, покупают у нас древесину.

Все описанное все же не станет могучим вкладом в подъем уровня благосостояния народа, и сельскохозяйственные инициативы тем самым фактически исчерпаны. И все же мы выяснили, что поддержка государством механизма сельского хозяйства должна ориентироваться на ограниченное (см. выше - насколько ограниченное по количеству и площади) число высокоэффективных (а не обещающих стать таковыми) сельских хозяйств (зарабатывающих).

Следует помнить, что крестьяне ждут будущего года, когда обещаны компенсации покупателям новой техники (один лишь Ипотечный банк прогнозирует спрос в размере 17-20 миллионов латов), и может так случиться, что, если компенсировать всем подряд, денег весьма скоро может не хватить (как и субсидий производителям сахарной свеклы в этом году). Ягоды (капиталовложения на создание плантаций по их выращиванию) субсидировать даже более рационально, так как затраты в общем обороте составляют 11-21% в отличие от 36-48% в зерновом хозяйстве. Если вспомним, что ставка налога с прибыли составлет 25%, то может случиться, что государство (те, кто не занимается сельским хозяйством) получит обратно вложенные деньги в виде налога.

Мы подошли к самому болезненному - что делать тем, кто хочет жить на селе, но не хочет выращивать хлеб, рождественские елочки или ягоды.

Пока яунпилсские крестьяне не сказали мне, что они хотели бы, чтобы в их волости был построен завод, для меня это прозвучало бы кощунством из уст рижанина.

Для выяснения возможности строительства завода в любой конкретной волости следовало бы вернуться к моему знакомому Ш., так хорошо устроившемуся в Риге.

Построенное им офисное здание имеет арендаторов только потому, что в городе достаточно много клиентов, там доступны образованные (универсальная рабочая сила) люди, да и с инфраструктурой (особенно с теле- и прочими коммуникациями) там все в порядке.

Каждый раз, когда мы говорим о каком-либо предприятии на селе, мы констатируем, что там, к примеру, слишком мал внутренний рынок.

Так, чтобы окупился один зубоврачебный кабинет (и этот бизнес подвержен риску благодаря жевательной резинке Dirol с утра до вечера), по соседству должно быть не менее пяти тысяч жителей.

Чтобы окупилась одна соответствующая европейским стандартам автозаправочная станция (на которой, между прочим, на каждый литр горючего ожидается прибыль в 2,2 сантима), мимо нее в день должны проезжать (и некоторые останавливаться) не менее 2500 автомобилей, к тому же в сельской местности так или иначе 75% доходов этой станции приносит имеющийся при ней магазин со всякой всячиной.

Временами наплыв таких людей удается искусственно стимулировать, например, устроив соревнование по жарению кур между Алткирхой и Нойкирхой.

Самым устойчивым решением все же могло бы стать совместное принятие волостями решения, где будет расположен тот центр, в который ежедневно будет отправляться большее количество людей, чем в каждый из них по отдельности. Тогда и появится достаточное количество клиентов у сапожника, ремесленника или лавочника.

Заводу же и этого будет мало, так как на селе, к сожалению, катастрофически мало квалифицированной рабочей силы, дороги г-н К. тоже не везде еще заасфальтировал (большие фургоны неохотно ездят по грунтовым дорогам), и совсем нет возможности послать сообщение по электронной почте потенциальному зарубежному инвестору.

Вспомним, что вместо заводов самые высокие доходы приносит современная предпринимательская деятельность - услуги и информация. И все же стоящие на одной ноге парни с мобильными телефонами в руках не появляются сами по себе. Они появляются, когда государство вкладывает достаточные средства в образование, науку и современные средства связи.

Для поощрения предпринимательской деятельности вообще была бы нужна не национальная программа, а некоторые практические вещи, к примеру, чтобы государство вовремя возвращало переплаченные суммы налога на добавленную стоимость или чтобы у школьников и студентов были хоть какие-то средства на жизнь.

Сделать все это гораздо сложнее, чем перед каждыми выборами раздавать по нескольку латов большинству избирателей. И тем не менее есть как минимум пара вещей, ради которых это имеет смысл делать.

Говоря о государстве как о предприятии, наш общий знакомый Ш. не сказал, что золотой закон предприятия велит концентрировать все силы на производстве тех 20% продукции, которая приносит 80% прибыли предприятия. В противном случае предприятие (государство) обречено на более или менее быстрое банкротство. Но и того, что он сказал, достаточно, чтобы объявить, что сельское хозяйство он не любит.

Если любить всех, кто хочет заниматься традиционным сельским хозяйством (а не только тех, кто привык, кто это умеет), мы рано или поздно придем к бедности, характерной для аграрной экономики.

Так уж получается, что сельский капитал - это немногие эффективные сельскохозяйственники, образование плюс строительство Риги в каждом провинциальном городке. Поэтому то, что количество студентов в нынешнем году на 13% больше, чем в прошлом (и половина их учится на собственные деньги), - гораздо более радующий показатель, чем прирост внутреннего валового продукта на пять процентов. Если количество средств для инвестиционной программы, науки и культуры (как составной части образования) росло бы столь же стремительно, об этом вообще не было бы нужды говорить.

Автор: Айгар Штокенбергс, Диена

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